France welcome Italy to the Stade de France after making a perfect start under Zinedine Zidane. Two victories from two matches have put the hosts top of the group, although both wins came by a narrow 1–0 scoreline.

Italy responded to their opening defeat against Belgium by beating Turkey, but this will be a much tougher test against a French side that has already shown it can win without playing at its best.

France have made a solid start under Zidane

Zidane began his time as France manager with a 1–0 victory away against Turkey. Kylian Mbappé scored the only goal before leaving the pitch with an injury that has ruled him out of the rest of the international break.

France followed that result with another 1–0 victory against Belgium. Michael Olise scored the winner as Zidane’s team produced another controlled performance and protected their lead.

The results have been positive, but France have not created many clear chances. The absence of Mbappé removes their biggest threat on the counterattack, while injuries to William Saliba, Ibrahima Konaté and Aurélien Tchouaméni have also reduced Zidane’s options.

France still have plenty of attacking quality. Ousmane Dembélé, Bradley Barcola, Rayan Cherki and Olise can all cause problems, but the opening two matches suggest Zidane is currently placing more importance on control and defensive stability.

Italy face another difficult away match

Italy lost their opening Nations League match against Belgium before recovering with a convincing victory over Turkey.

That result should give Roberto Mancini’s team confidence, but France represent a clear step up in quality. Italy will also be without Federico Chiesa and Manuel Locatelli, leaving the visitors without two important and experienced players.

Italy are likely to defend with several players behind the ball and look for opportunities on the counterattack. They have enough quality to make the match competitive, but creating regular chances at the Stade de France may prove difficult.

The visitors will need to remain organised because France can punish mistakes even without Mbappé. However, Italy’s approach should also make it difficult for the hosts to turn this into a high-scoring game.

France are favourites, but the price is short

France are priced around 1.44 to win, which is understandable given their home advantage and perfect start. That price is still difficult to take on its own when both of their victories under Zidane have ended 1–0.

A better option is to combine a France victory with under 4.5 goals. France have looked organised defensively, while Italy are unlikely to take many risks away from home.

This selection only loses if Italy avoid defeat or the match produces five or more goals. Based on how France have played under Zidane and the important attacking players missing from both teams, a controlled home victory looks more likely than an open game.

Verdict

France have won both matches under Zidane without conceding and should have enough quality to continue that run at home.

Italy can make the match difficult, but the hosts have more options and have already shown that they can protect a narrow lead. France should win, with 1–0 or 2–0 looking like the most likely results.

Tip

France to win and Under 4.5 Goals