Crewe Alexandra welcome Aston Villa U21 to Alexandra Stadium in the EFL Trophy. The hosts are unbeaten in League Two this season but have drawn five consecutive matches, while Villa’s young side arrive after several high-scoring games. With a senior team facing an adventurous academy side, there should be opportunities at both ends.

Crewe remain unbeaten after another draw

Crewe have made a solid start to the League Two season. They have avoided defeat in their opening seven league matches, but five consecutive draws have prevented them from climbing higher in the table.

Their latest match ended 1–1 against Shrewsbury at Alexandra Stadium. Jordan Gibson gave Crewe the lead during the first half, but George Lloyd equalised before the break. Neither team found a winner after half-time.

That result followed draws against Port Vale, Walsall, York City and Colchester United. Crewe have scored in four of those five matches but have also struggled to turn good periods into victories.

The concern for an over 3.5 goals bet is that their recent league matches have been relatively tight. Four of the previous five produced two goals or fewer, with the 2–2 draw against Walsall the only exception.

This game should produce a different type of contest. Crewe will face younger and less experienced defenders, while their own lineup could include several players looking to earn a regular place in the league team.

Aston Villa U21 continue to produce open matches

Aston Villa U21 have shown plenty of attacking quality this season, but their matches have also exposed defensive weaknesses.

Their last two Premier League 2 fixtures ended 2–2 against Middlesbrough U21 and 3–3 against Fulham U21. Villa scored five times across those games but were unable to protect a lead or keep control defensively.

The young Villans have also produced contrasting results in the Premier League International Cup. They responded to a 4–0 defeat against Brøndby U21 by beating Real Sociedad U21 5–1.

Those four matches produced 20 goals in total, with every game finishing with at least four. That record explains why Villa are dangerous opponents despite entering the match as underdogs.

Players such as Rory Wilson and Mason Cotcher give Villa a threat in the final third, while several members of the squad have already gained experience around the senior team. The challenge will be handling the physical side of the game against established League Two players.

Crewe should create more chances than usual

Crewe have faced experienced and organised senior opposition in their recent league matches. They should find more space against an academy side that prefers to attack rather than defend deep.

The hosts will be expected to control possession and create chances inside the Villa penalty area. Their physical advantage could also become important from corners, free kicks and crosses into the box.

Villa are unlikely to spend the entire match protecting their own goal. Their recent results show that they are comfortable playing at a high tempo, even when that approach leaves space behind them.

Rotation adds some uncertainty. Crewe may rest several regular starters, while the Villa lineup could include players with limited senior experience. That can lead to defensive mistakes and a less controlled match than we usually see from Crewe in League Two.

An early goal would be particularly important. If Crewe score first, Villa will have to push forward and leave more space. If the visitors take the lead, Crewe have enough experience to respond and turn the match into an open contest.

Verdict

Crewe deserve to be favourites because they are unbeaten in League Two, have home advantage and possess more senior experience throughout the squad.

Aston Villa U21 should still contribute to the game. They have scored five goals across their last two league matches and recently put five past Real Sociedad U21. Their defensive record makes it difficult to trust them to keep Crewe quiet.

The hosts could score three or more goals themselves, while Villa have enough attacking quality to add one at the other end. Results such as 3–1, 4–1 or 3–2 all look possible at Alexandra Stadium.

Tip

Over 3.5 goals