Only one point separates KFUM and Aalesunds FK before they meet at KFUM Arena in a match that could have major consequences at the bottom of the Eliteserien table. KFUM sit 14th with 19 points, while Aalesund are directly behind them with 18. A victory would give either side some valuable breathing room, but another defeat would leave them under serious pressure heading into the final part of the season.

KFUM return home after two difficult defeats

KFUM enter the match following consecutive away defeats. They first suffered a damaging 4–1 loss against bottom side Start before losing 2–0 against Molde in their most recent league match.

Those results extended their winless run to three matches and mean they have now lost five of their previous eight league games. During those eight matches, KFUM have scored eight goals and conceded 16.

Their overall form is a concern, but most of KFUM’s points have come at KFUM Arena. They have collected 14 of their 19 points at home, winning four of their ten matches in Oslo. That home advantage could be important against an Aalesund side that has struggled badly on its travels.

KFUM average only 1.10 goals per home match, but Aalesund have conceded in every away game this season. The visitors allow an average of 2.13 goals away from home, giving KFUM an opportunity to rediscover their attacking confidence.

The hosts will have to manage several absences. Robin Rasch, Ayoub Aleesami and Magnus Wolff Eikrem are among the injured players, while Jacob Blixt Flaten is suspended. Magnus Retsius Grødem is also considered doubtful.

Aalesund ended a long wait for victory

Aalesund arrive with renewed confidence after beating Start 2–0 in their previous match. It was their first league victory in ten games and lifted them to within one point of KFUM.

That result also provided a rare clean sheet for a team that has struggled defensively throughout the season. Aalesund have conceded 43 goals in 19 matches, giving them the worst defensive record in the division.

Their recent numbers are even more concerning. They have conceded 23 goals across their last eight league games, including six against both Tromsø and Vålerenga.

Aalesund remain dangerous at the other end of the pitch, however. They have scored 30 league goals, ten more than KFUM, and have found the net in 12 consecutive matches. They have also scored in each of their previous five away games.

That combination has made Aalesund difficult to predict. They carry enough attacking threat to trouble most opponents, but their defence rarely gives them control of a match. They have kept no clean sheets in eight away fixtures and have collected only six points on their travels.

Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen and Paul Ngongo Iversen are expected to miss the match through injury. Apart from those absences, Kjetil Rekdal should have most of his squad available for a match his side cannot afford to lose.

The first meeting produced four goals

The teams have already met once this season. Aalesund hosted KFUM at Color Line Stadion in April, with the match ending in a 2–2 draw.

That result continued Aalesund’s strong record in this fixture. KFUM have failed to win any of the five previous meetings between the clubs, with Aalesund claiming four victories and the remaining match ending level.

Four of those five meetings have produced at least three goals, with both teams scoring in the same four matches. The previous meeting at KFUM Arena ended in a 4–2 victory for Aalesund.

The current situation could produce another open contest. Both teams desperately need three points, and a draw would do little to move either side away from the relegation battle.

KFUM should be more aggressive at home after failing to score against Molde. Aalesund are unlikely to sit back after finally ending their winless run, particularly when a victory would take them above KFUM in the table.

Both sides have reasons to attack

Backing a winner is difficult. KFUM have the stronger home record, but Aalesund have never lost this fixture and have scored considerably more goals this season.

The goals market offers a clearer angle. Aalesund have scored in 12 consecutive league matches and in their last five away games, but they are still waiting for their first away clean sheet of the season.

KFUM have failed to score in three of their ten home matches, which creates some risk. They are facing the weakest defence in the division, however, and should receive opportunities against a team conceding more than two goals per away match.

Aalesund’s 2–0 victory over Start may suggest improvement, but one clean sheet does not erase the defensive problems seen throughout the season. At the same time, their attacking record makes backing only KFUM to score less appealing.

Verdict

This is a major match for two teams separated by only one point. KFUM will look to use their home advantage to recover from consecutive defeats, while Aalesund arrive with confidence after finally returning to winning ways.

Neither defence is easy to trust. KFUM have conceded seven goals across their previous two matches, while Aalesund have allowed 43 goals this season and conceded in every away game.

The first meeting ended 2–2, and another match with chances at both ends looks likely. Both teams need more than a draw, which should force them to continue attacking even if the score is level during the second half.

A 2–1 result in either direction would be enough, while another 2–2 draw also remains realistic.

Tip

Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals