Venezia and Fiorentina meet at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo with both teams already under pressure after a difficult start to the Serie A season. Venezia in 18th with two goals scored and seven conceded, while Fiorentina are bottom of the table with an even worse goal difference of 1–9. Neither team has collected a point from the opening three rounds.

Venezia have shown more going forward

Venezia enter the match after consecutive defeats. They were eliminated from the Coppa Italia following a 2–1 loss against Udinese before suffering a 3–2 league defeat against Frosinone.

The results have been disappointing, but Venezia have at least shown that they can create chances. They scored twice against Frosinone and average 2.59 goals per home match, giving them reason to believe they can hurt a Fiorentina defence that has struggled badly during the opening weeks.

Venezia can also take confidence from their recent record in this fixture. They have won five of the previous six home meetings with Fiorentina, scoring 11 goals and conceding only five. Across the last five meetings at all venues, Venezia lead the head-to-head record with three wins, one draw and one defeat. They also won the most recent encounter 2–1.

The main concern is at the other end of the pitch. Venezia have conceded in six consecutive matches and are missing several players, including Toma Basic, Marin Sverko, Bartol Franjic, Andrea Adorante and Armel Bella-Kotchap. Those absences could make an already vulnerable defence even more difficult to trust.

Fiorentina desperately need a response

Fiorentina could hardly have made a worse start. They followed a 3–0 defeat against Frosinone with a 2–1 loss against Torino and have scored only once while conceding nine goals across their opening three league matches.

Their attack has not produced enough, but this is a much better opportunity to find the net. Venezia have conceded seven league goals and are dealing with several absences, particularly in defensive areas.

Fiorentina average 1.22 goals in away matches and still possess enough individual quality to create chances against one of the weakest defences in the league. Fabiano Parisi is unavailable, but the visitors should not be short of motivation with both their position and performances already creating pressure.

Sitting bottom after three rounds means Fiorentina cannot simply wait for the match to come to them. They need a victory, and that should force them to play with more ambition than they have shown so far.

Both defences remain difficult to trust

The previous meetings between these teams have generally been tight. They produce only 1.2 goals per match on average, with an average of 0.4 goals during the first half.

Current form tells a different story, however. Both teams have conceded in six consecutive matches, while their combined goal difference after three rounds stands at 3–16. Neither defence has shown that it can control a match or protect a lead.

Venezia have been the more productive attacking side and should create opportunities at home, especially given their strong record against Fiorentina at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. Fiorentina have struggled to score, but this may be their best chance so far to improve that record.

The pressure surrounding the match could initially produce a cautious opening, but the first goal should change the situation. Neither team can be satisfied with a draw, and whoever falls behind will have to take more risks.

Verdict

The historical numbers suggest a low-scoring contest, but they are difficult to trust when both teams have started the season with such serious defensive problems.

Venezia have scored more freely and hold an excellent home record in this fixture, but their absences and run of six matches without a clean sheet make them difficult to back outright. Fiorentina have offered very little going forward so far, although they should find opportunities against a defence that has already conceded seven league goals.

Combining both teams to score with over 2.5 goals would carry more risk because a 1–1 draw remains a realistic result. Backing each side to score provides protection against that outcome while still taking advantage of their defensive weaknesses.

Tip

Both teams to score