Only one win separates MOUZ and Vitality from the BLAST Open Porto grand final. MOUZ secured a direct place in the semi-finals by topping Group B with wins over 9z and Inner Circle. While Vitality were battling through the quarter-finals, MOUZ had extra time to prepare for one of the biggest matches of the tournament.

Vitality arrive as favourites, but recent performances suggest this semi-final could be much closer than the odds imply. Vitality were pushed all the way by FURIA in the quarter-finals. After suffering a heavy defeat on Nuke, they responded to complete a reverse sweep and book their place in the final four. It was another reminder that, while Vitality remain one of the strongest teams in the world, they haven’t looked quite as dominant in Porto as they did earlier this season.

MOUZ have momentum on their side

MOUZ topped Group B with victories over 9z and Inner Circle to book a direct spot in the semi-finals. While Vitality were battling through the quarter-finals, MOUZ had extra time to prepare for one of the biggest matches of the tournament.

One of MOUZ’s biggest strengths throughout Porto has been their ability to recover during a series. Against Falcons they looked completely outplayed on the opening map before turning the match around with two convincing performances. That resilience has become one of the defining traits of this roster, and it’s difficult to ignore heading into another best-of-three.

Spinx has also enjoyed an excellent tournament against his former organisation, while xertioN and torzsi have consistently provided the firepower needed to compete with the world’s best.

Vitality still have the higher ceiling

Despite looking vulnerable at times, Vitality remain deserved favourites. Few teams can match the individual quality of ZywOo, ropz and flameZ. Even when they aren’t playing their best Counter-Strike, Vitality often find a way to recover through superior firepower and experience.

The concern is consistency. Both FURIA and several lower-ranked opponents in recent weeks have exposed cracks that weren’t visible earlier in the year. If those slow starts continue, MOUZ have more than enough quality to punish them.

Expect another close series

The veto should give both teams opportunities. MOUZ have looked particularly comfortable on Ancient and Inferno, while Vitality remain one of the deepest teams in the world when it comes to map pool flexibility. Neither side has shown enough dominance in Porto to expect a comfortable 2-0. With a place in the grand final on the line, every map is likely to be contested.

Verdict

Vitality deserve to be favourites based on individual quality, but MOUZ have arguably been the more convincing team throughout BLAST Open Porto. MOUZ topped their group without needing the quarter-finals, while Vitality were forced to battle back from a map down against FURIA to keep their tournament alive.

Everything points towards another closely contested best-of-three, and backing the series to go the distance offers the best value.

Tip

Over 2.5 Maps